Bourbon and Bows with Kathie Chong
2020 B1G Basketball Tournament Viewing Guide and Predictions
2020 Big Ten Basketball Tournament Bracket (Image: Big Ten Conference)
Written By: Kathie Chong (@hoohookathie)
The Big Ten Tournament is kicking off today, and Bourbon and Bows will be live in attendance at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
It has been a wonderful regular season, and we are excited to see the teams we have seen all year face off against each other in the B1G tournament.
Here are some things that we’ll be watching for, and quick predictions for what to expect. Note that all listed times are in Eastern Standard Time (subject to change depending on how late games go).
Wednesday, March 11 -- First Round
Game 1: Wednesday at 6 PM
#12 Minnesota (KenPom #29; B1G 8-12; Overall 14-16)
vs.
#13 Northwestern (KenPom #128; B1G 3-17; Overall 8-22)
Team Preview:
● Minnesota is one of the higher KenPom ranked (#29) teams likely to be left out of the NCAA tournament due to its losing record (14-16), unless the Gophers make a substantial run this weekend.
● Minnesota lost more than several close games that could have gone the other way (including three narrow losses to Maryland, Wisconsin, and Indiana late in the season), which is why the analytics like Minnesota (even if it won’t make the NCAA tournament).
● The Big Ten will likely put ten teams into the NCAA Tournament, depending on how the rest of the bubble shakes out. Daniel Oturu will probably be the best(?) B1G player left out of the big dance.
● Northwestern only has three regular season B1G wins this year (1/11 v. Nebraska 62-57; 3/1 v. Nebraska 81-76; 3/7 v. Penn State 80-69). Two were against Nebraska, the worst team in the league (which has decided to have football players suit up as basketball players for the B1G tournament.).
● Not to be left out, Northwestern invited its football coach Pat Fitzgerald to provide color commentary on a basketball game, with mixed results.
● Coach Chris Collins probably has some leeway and career security (although this past month dueling articles have appeared on Northwestern sports publications and the Chicago Tribune as to whether he ought to be on the hot seat).
● The Wildcats are just 3-11 in games away from Welsh-Ryan Arena this season. Miller Kopp is their leading scorer (13.2 PPG), and they have two other double-digit scorers, Boo Buie and Pat Spencer (each 10.5 PPG).
Regular Season Games:
● Minnesota beat Northwestern twice in the regular season (77-68 on 1/5; 83-57 on 2/23)
Prediction:
● Minnesota. KenPom predicts a 79% chance of Minnesota winning, by a score of 73-64.
● Daniel Oturu will be the best player in the game, and will carry Minnesota to a victory.
Game 2: Wednesday at 8:25 PM
#11 Indiana (KenPom #40; B1G 9-11; Overall 19-12)
vs.
#14 Nebraska (KenPom #152; B1G 2-18, Overall 7-24)
Team Preview:
● Indiana is on the bubble again this year, and Archie isn’t pleased -- making waves in the national media by comparing bracketology shows and predictions to Sesame Street.
● Despite goosing the schedule against non-conference competition early in the season, IU has only 19 wins in the regular season and a losing Big Ten record.
● The Hoosiers will probably need one or two more wins this week to be certain of being invited to the NCAA tournament.
● Nebraska is the worst team in Big Ten basketball this year. Their two wins were against Purdue on 12/15 (70-56) and Iowa on 1/7 (76-70).
● The Huskers are short-handed -- they will be without the suspended Cam Mack and only seven basketball players will be playing. It has gotten so dire that the program announced today that two football players, Noah Vedral and Brant Banks, will be joining the basketball team in the B1G tournament. They have not been practicing with the team, as far as we know.
● Coach Fred Hoiberg has struggled with Nebraska’s lack of an effective big man, and TJD (and to a lesser extent, Joey Brunk) has taken advantage in both of IU’s matchups against the Huskers.
Regular Season Games:
● Indiana beat Nebraska 96-90 on 12/13 at Assembly Hall.
● While IU entered its Big Ten opener as a 17.5-point favorite, the Cornhuskers took IU to overtime. The Hoosiers took too many threes and shot just 5-of-25 from behind the three-point line.
● After shooting poorly from the free throw line in the first half (9-of-15), the Hoosiers made their free throws in the second half and overtime (18-of-23 in the final 25 minutes of the game).
● Trayce Jackson-Davis was the MVP of the game. Nebraska had no answer for TJD in the post (25 points, 15 rebounds), and he had 22 points and 10 rebounds after halftime.
● Indiana beat Nebraska 82-74 on 1/18 in Lincoln.
● While the Hoosiers built up a 19-point lead twice (15:02, 12:52 remaining in the game), they had one of their typical scoring droughts, failing to score for 8:07 of game time. Nebraska got as close as six points twice in the game’s final 80 seconds.
● Indiana struggled to hold onto the ball. IU had 16 turnovers, but Nebraska failed to capitalize.
● Jackson-Davis had another great game, with 18 points and 13 rebounds. He was 6-for-7 on field goals, 6-for-8 on free throws, had 4 assists and 0 turnovers.
Prediction:
● Indiana. KenPom predicts a 82% chance of Indiana winning, by a score of 77-67.
● If IU avoids turnovers and a scoring drought, it should be able to win by taking advantage of Nebraska in the post.
Thursday, March 12 -- Second Round
Game 3: Thursday at 12 PM
#8 Rutgers (KenPom #27; B1G 11-9, Overall 20-11)
vs.
#9 Michigan (KenPom #16; B1G 10-10, Overall 19-12)
Team Preview:
● Rutgers’ best player, Geo Baker, was named Third Team All Big-Ten for his excellent play this season. Baker is Rutgers’ first-ever all Big Ten team selection (since Rutgers joined the conference in the 2014-15 season).
● Baker has hit some important late-game shots this year, against Nebraska, Northwestern, and in an overtime win against Purdue in the last game of the season, (potentially locking up a bid for Rutgers to the NCAA tournament and bursting the Boilermakers’ bubble).
● Random fact: Dick Vitale was a young assistant basketball coach at Rutgers back in the day, and has been gushing about the program’s recent success.
● Michigan has had an up-and-down season, winning the Bahamas tournament and ranking as high as #4 in the nation, and then losing their best player Isaiah Livers for significant portions of the season due to injury.
● Michigan played the #1 toughest regular season strength of schedule in the nation. First-year coach Juwan Howard has met expectations (and potentially exceeded them in his recruiting ability), and has Michigan on the brink of a bid to the NCAA tournament (despite the team having lost over 60% of its scoring from last year).
● Michigan has some great wins against top 25 teams, especially on neutral floors, although Big Ten play has been spotty.
Regular Season Games:
● Michigan beat Rutgers 69-63 at Madison Square Garden on 2/1, and 60-52 in New Jersey on 2/19.
Prediction:
● Michigan. KenPom predicts a 56% chance of Michigan winning, by a score of 69-67. Michigan delivered Rutgers’ only home loss of the season this year.
● Rutgers has never beaten Michigan in basketball (an 0-13 record), and that streak looks to continue, especially on a neutral court, where Michigan plays well.
Game 4: Thursday at 2:25 PM
#5 Iowa (KenPom #23; B1G 11-9, Overall 20-11)
vs.
Game 1 winner [#12 Minnesota/#13 Northwestern]
Team Preview:
● Iowa is a lock for the NCAA tournament, with seven Quadrant 1 wins (Maryland, Ohio State, Texas Tech (neutral court), Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Syracuse).
● Iowa has the Big Ten Conference’s most efficient offense, and Luka Garza was named the 2019-20 Big Ten Player of the Year by conference coaches and media.
● Garza is this year’s Big Ten scoring champion, averaging 26.2 in Big Ten games. He has scored more than 20 points in 16 consecutive Big Ten games, and more than 30 points five times.
Regular Season Games:
● Iowa beat Minnesota 72-52 on 12/9 and 58-55 on 2/16. Iowa beat Northwestern 75-62 on 1/14.
● In Iowa’s last game against Minnesota, Luka Garza scored 41% of Iowa’s total points. The Gophers struggled to defend the Iowa center, although it took a late-game 11-0 Iowa run for the Hawkeyes to win in Minneapolis.
● If Minnesota is to have a chance, they have to rotate onto shooters and try to defend Garza without fouling.
Prediction:
● Iowa. Luka Garza will be too good for either Minnesota or Northwestern to handle. Garza is the best player in the Big Ten, and difficult to guard in the post.
● The Big Ten has had a glut of fantastic centers this year, though, and Daniel Oturu will do his best to match Garza shot for shot.
● Iowa is especially deadly if Joe Wieskamp and CJ Fredrick are making shots from the perimeter.
Game 5: Thursday at 6:30 PM
#7 Ohio State (KenPom #8; B1G 11-9, Overall 21-10)
vs.
#10 Purdue (KenPom #24; B1G 9-11, Overall 16-15)
Team Preview:
● Ohio State has had an up-and-down season. They were 11-1 through Christmas, ranked as high as #2 in the AP poll (with some big wins against then #10 Villanova, #7 UNC and #6 Kentucky), and then quickly became unranked after losing four in a row and six of the next seven, winning just 2 of its first 8 Big Ten conference games. They then won three in a row, lost two of their next four, won four in a row, and finished their season with a loss at Michigan State.
● Reflecting on the regular season, Coach Chris Holtmann had some choice words to say: “We realize plenty of people wrote us off when we were 2-6 . . . Had people making fun of us, putting all their sarcastic tweets out there. I got them all saved. All of them. . .”
● “I have been a part of some turnarounds from a difficult January, but I don’t think I’ve been a part of one this significant where you’ve seen such a dramatic turnaround . . . And again, after the season we’ll sit down and try to figure out why exactly that is, but we’ve really had a dramatic shift.”
● Coach Holtmann has been using a six-man rotation. Junior Kyle Young has missed games with a high ankle sprain, and freshman D.J. Carton, the team’s third-leading scorer, has taken a leave of absence from the team since the end of January for mental health issues.
● The team relies heavily on All-Big Ten Second Team junior Kaleb Wesson, who led the Buckeyes in scoring (14 PPG) and rebounding (9.3 RPG). Junior CJ Walker has stepped up into the point guard role in Carton’s absence, and freshman E.J. Liddell has played well recently from the forward position.
● Purdue has had a disappointing regular season -- they have had some big wins over good teams, but also too many losses.
● After losing Carsen Edwards to the Boston Celtics, Purdue has had difficulty scoring the basketball this year, particularly down the stretch in games. It can rebound and play defense, but needs all nine rotation guys to contribute to the box score.
● Ultimately, the Boilermakers have something to play for in the B1G tournament (unlike some of the other teams, which could affect motivation levels and make a difference in the results of the games).
● Purdue also has somewhat of a home-court advantage, playing in Indianapolis, which will depend on how well their fans travel.
● As it stands, Purdue has 16 wins. 16 win teams don’t make the NCAA tournament. Purdue has to win to get in. More than one, maybe several games, make it to the B1G finals or even the automatic berth.
Regular Season Games:
● Ohio State beat Purdue 68-52 on 2/15 in Columbus.
● The Buckeyes led for most of the game.
Prediction:
● Ohio State. KenPom predicts a 58% chance of Ohio State winning, by a score of 65-63.
● I think Purdue will have difficulty scoring the basketball, and when in doubt, always root against the Boilermakers.
Game 6: Thursday at 8:55 PM
#6 Penn State (KenPom #26; B1G 11-9, Overall 21-10)
vs.
Game 2 winner [#11 Indiana/#14 Nebraska]
Team Preview:
● Penn State has lost five out of the final six games of the season. Towards the end of the loss to Michigan State, Penn State players were shown on camera to be having disagreements on the floor.
● Lamar Stevens has struggled, appearing fatigued and missing shots he would normally make. Myreon Jones, returning from injury, is still looking to get in his stride.
● When Penn State struggles, they overly rely on transition three-pointers to catch up.
Regular Season Games:
● Indiana beat Penn State 68-60 on 2/23, and lost to Penn State 49-64 on 1/29.
● In the loss, the Hoosiers led for most of the first half (but never by more than three). There were seven lead changes and the half ended in a 28-28 tie.
● In the second half, the Hoosiers had one of their patented scoring droughts -- Penn State had a 20-7 run where they held IU to two field goals in over 11 minutes. Penn State led by as many as 20 points with 3:01 left in the game.
● In the win, the Hoosiers had a 19-point first half lead, fell behind by six, and then ended up winning 68-60, a change from the first game.
Prediction:
● Indiana. This is a great bracket draw for Indiana, given Penn State’s downswing in the last month. The Hoosiers need to build and hang onto a lead, without one of their cold spells (given the last two games).
● It is a perfect opportunity for Archie Miller to snag a program win, and cement his team’s bid to the big dance. Will the team rise to the occasion?
● Indiana hasn’t won two games in the B1G Tourney since 2003. As Rafiki from the Lion King says, “It is time.
Friday, March 13 -- Quarterfinals
Game 7: Friday at 12 PM
#1 Wisconsin (KenPom #22; B1G 14-6, Overall 21-10
vs.
Game 3 winner [#9 Michigan/#8 Rutgers]
Team Preview:
● Wisconsin clinched a share of the B1G regular season title, and enters the B1G tournament on an 8-game winning streak.
● They have been hot from behind the 3-point line. Guard D’Mitrik Trice has played well, and Micah Potter has been a sparkplug off the bench.
● After losing Kobe King to transfer in January, Coach Greg Gard has righted the ship and deserves his Coach of the Year accolades.
Regular Season Games:
● Wisconsin beat Michigan 81-74 on 2/27. In that game, Wisconsin made more 3-pointers (11) than Michigan attempted (10). When Wisconsin plays Michigan, it seems D’mitrik Trice turns into Steph Curry (5-6 from three-point land).
● Wisconsin split the two regular season matches with Rutgers home-and-home -- winning 79-71 in Madison on 2/23, and losing 65-72 in Piscataway on 12/11. Micah Potter came off the bench to score 18 points and snag 9 rebounds in the win (as for the loss, it’s tough to win in the Big Ten on the road).
Prediction:
● Wisconsin. The Badgers have experience beating both Michigan and Rutgers during the regular season.
Game 8: Friday at 2:25 PM
#4 Illinois (KenPom #30; B1G 13-7, Overall 21-10)
vs.
Game 4 winner [#5 Iowa/#12 Minnesota/#13 Northwestern]
Team Preview:
● Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu was picked first-team All-Big Ten on Monday by the media (but was not picked first-team by the coaches, replaced instead by Maryland guard Anthony Cowan.)
● Coach Brad Underwood had rave reviews for Dosunmu on the last Sunday of the regular season: “Find anybody who’s better. Find anybody who’s made more game-winners, impacted a team, impacted a program. We were a shell of ourselves the game we played without him. He’s been absolutely as good on both ends of the court as any guard in this league.”
● Freshman 7-foot center Kofi Cockburn, from Kingston, Jamaica, has been one of the best freshman in the league -- he has transformed Illinois’ style of play on both ends of the court, and saved Coach Underwood from his worst tendencies.
Regular Season Games:
● Iowa beat Illinois 72-65 on 2/2.
● In that game, Garza scored 25 points and snagged 10 rebounds. Coach Underwood’s plan to beat Garza up in the post didn’t quite work, as 6-11 Garza made four 3-pointers on nine attempts.
● Illinois led by 62-61 with 4:03 to play, but Iowa kept the Illini from scoring until Dosunmu hit a 3 with four seconds left. Iowa made five of its last seven shots.
● In Illinois’ regular season finale on 3/8, Illinois enacted some revenge by beating Iowa 78-76 at home.
● Illinois had a 17-point lead in the game which evaporated to 2 points in the final seconds, and Cockburn had to block Garza under the basket at the buzzer to escape with the win. Iowa missed 3 shot attempts in the final 4 seconds.
● Garza had 28 points, and Dosunmu had 17 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. Cockburn had 12 points, eight rebounds, two steals and the deciding block.
● There may be a rivalry brewing -- Ayo Dosunmu said after the game: “Basically, they want to kill us, and we want to kill them. I mean, there’s a respect factor, but on the court it’s pure hate. We just don’t like each other.”
Prediction:
● Iowa. On a neutral court, I’ll take Garza.
● Iowa almost beat Illinois in Champaign, and if Joe Wieskamp and CJ Fredrick (both of whom shot poorly in Illinois’ season final game) make some shots down the stretch, Garza will be just too good to beat.
● Great season, Coach Underwood!
Game 9: Friday at 6:30 PM
#2 Michigan State (KenPom #7; B1G 14-6, Overall 22-9)
vs.
Game 5 winner [#7 Ohio State/#8 Purdue]
Team Preview:
● Michigan State started out the season ranked as the consensus national #1 team by polls and pundits. Then came tragedy, Cassius Winston losing his brother Zachary Winston, a sophomore guard at Division III Albion College, who by all accounts was welcome and friendly in the Spartan locker room.
● The Spartans end their season on a five-game winning streak, and have arguably returned to being the best team in the Big Ten right now (with Maryland struggling to end the reason). Cassius Winston is shooting 49% from the 3-point line, Xavier Tillman is playing first-team All Big Ten defense, and the team is generally playing well both on offense and defense.
Prediction / Regular Season Games:
● Michigan State. The Spartans’ final game of the regular season was at the Breslin Center on Senior Day, and they beat the Buckeyes 80-69.
● That game obviously serves as a meaningful preview of what the match-up may look like (even though this will be on a neutral court).
● Even if Purdue makes it this far, it is unlikely to prevail over the Spartans (although they did deliver one of the worst beatdowns suffered by Michigan State this season, 71-42, on 1/12 in West Lafayette).
● Side note: Ohio State Coach Chris Holtmann apparently took issue with MSU’s traditional senior day celebrations.
● Because the game was decided in the final minutes, Coach Izzo was able to sub out his seniors to standing ovations from the home crowd. One of the things the Spartan seniors do on senior day is to walk to midcourt and kiss the logo before checking out of their final game.
● Coach Holtmann complained to the ref, saying that the Spartan seniors should have done that after the game. Coach Izzo later said that he had to apologize to Coach Holtmann, but explained that MSU has kissed the logo at midcourt even after losses.
Game 10: Friday at 8:55 PM
#3 Maryland (KenPom #11; B1G 14-6, Overall 24-7)
vs.
Game 6 winner [#11 Indiana/#6 Penn State/#14 Nebraska]
Team Preview:
● Maryland started out the season as a strong favorite in the Big Ten, and although people were not entirely sold on the Terrapins due to some of their close wins early, they met preseason expectations and more. Maryland clinched a share of the Big Ten regular season title on 3/8, beating Michigan at home 83-70.
● Center Jalen Smith was a unanimous first-team Big Ten pick by the coaches and media, and point guard Anthony Cowan was first-team Big Ten by the coaches and second-team Big Ten by the media. Cowan is a great late game player, and because of his clutch shot-making, Maryland has a great record this season in winning games while trailing in the last five minutes.
Regular Season Games:
● Maryland’s only home loss was against Michigan State on 2/29 in the midst of a tough stretch of games (a four-game, ten-day stretch with three games against good competition on the road -- the Terps lost at Ohio State on 2/23, won at Minnesota on 2/26, lost at home against Michigan State on 2/29, and lost at Rutgers on 3/3).
● Maryland’s other losses were on the road (those losses at Ohio State and Rutgers) but also at Penn State, at Iowa and at Wisconsin. Maryland also lost at Seton Hall, which at the time was a surprise but turned out to be a “good” loss as Seton Hall is currently first in the Big East with a 21-9 record.
Prediction:
● Maryland. Maryland has been good all year. The Terrapins beat Indiana twice in the regular season home-and-away, beat Nebraska at home and loss to Penn State away (although Penn State is currently in a bit of a tailspin).
● If Indiana makes it this far, it will likely have already secured its bid to the Big Dance (which may negatively affect Indiana’s motivation in this game). They will also have played two games in two days at this point, and have tired legs against a Maryland team that will be fresh.
● I love Indiana and I’m rooting for them to go all the way, but they aren’t making it to the weekend (sorry, Hoosiers fans). Getting this far (and into the NCAA tournament) will hopefully lift some weight off Archie’s back (but perhaps not a break from chewing IceBreakers Arctic Grape!)
Saturday, March 14 -- Semifinals
Game 11: Saturday at 1 PM
Game 7 winner [#1 Wisconsin/#9 Michigan/#8 Rutgers]
vs.
Game 8 winner [#5 Iowa/#4 Illinois/#12 Minnesota/#13 Northwestern]
Prediction / Regular Season Games:
● Wisconsin. This side of the bracket is probably less certain than the other semi-final, and Illinois, Rutgers (or maybe even a dark horse Michigan, if it plays the way it did to start the season) could potentially be playing in this game.
● Wisconsin probably beats either Michigan or Rutgers, but Illinois could beat Iowa to make the semi-finals (and play against Wisconsin here).
● From what I’m seeing on the Wisconsin blogs and twitter, the Badgers are eager for another shot against either Illinois or Iowa. Wisconsin lost close games against Illinois 70-71 on 1/8 in Madison, and against Iowa 62-68 on 1/27 in Iowa City.
● In the Iowa game, the Hawkeyes trailed 45-57 with 7:13 left in the game, before going on a 19-2 run. Garza had 21 points and 18 rebounds. That was before Wisconsin Coach Greg Gard turned around the team mid-season after Kobe King’s departure.
● If Wisconsin’s pretty boy shooting doesn’t dry up, and they manage to contain Garza and Iowa’s shooters around him, Wisconsin is overall a more balanced team. Iowa relies too heavily on Garza in the post (especially when the shots from afar aren’t falling).
● I think Wisconsin wins the way that each team has been playing to end the regular season.
Game 12: Saturday at 3:25 PM
Game 9 winner [#2 Michigan State/#7 Ohio State/#8 Purdue]
vs.
Game 10 winner [#3 Maryland/#11 Indiana/#6 Penn State/#14 Nebraska]
Prediction / Regular Season Games:
● Michigan State. Maryland and Michigan State played twice in the regular season, splitting the games (interestingly, with both teams winning away). Maryland won by 7 in East Lansing on 2/15, and Michigan State won by 12 in College Park on 2/29. Both teams have a share of the Big Ten regular season crown, so this match-up on a neutral court will be a good one.
● While Maryland’s Anthony Cowan Jr. and Jalen Smith are excellent players, Maryland’s defense has struggled in recent weeks. They’ll face Winston (who has taken his game to another level) and Tillman (arguably the best defender in the Big Ten).
● Tom Izzo is a far better coach than Mark Turgeon (who recently told the media that his team only had a half-dozen or so plays), and in a tournament setting, I often go with the better coach (especially if the teams are close).
● MSU is on a five-game winning streak and has played grittier this year, and I take them to win.
Sunday, March 15 — Big Ten Tournament Championship Game
Game 13: Sunday at 3:30 PM
Game 11 winner [#1 Wisconsin/#9 Michigan/#8 Rutgers/#5 Iowa/#4 Illinois/#12 Minnesota/#13 Northwestern]
vs.
Game 12 winner [#2 Michigan State/#7 Ohio State/#8 Purdue/#3 Maryland/#11 Indiana/#6 Penn State/#14 Nebraska]
Prediction:
● Michigan State. In a season where the Big Ten has been the strongest and deepest conference in basketball, with ten teams likely to make the NCAA tournament (and the teams beating up on each other throughout the season, three shared regular season champions and several other teams just a cut below) -- no one can predict the winner of the B1G tournament with any certainty.
● Of the fourteen teams, I wouldn’t be shocked if Wisconsin or Maryland took the tournament crown. But I’m going with the preseason consensus #1 and thinking that the tournament title goes to Michigan State. I’ve been rooting for Cassius Winston (except when he plays the Hoosiers) over the last couple years -- he is one of those players that opposing fans can’t help but like. After losing his brother, Michigan State really came together as a team around his personal tragedy.
Like many Izzo teams, this team is rounding into form leading up to the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans have won three straight Big Ten Tournaments in Indianapolis (2012, 2014 and 2016) -- they love playing at the Fieldhouse. I’m expecting Cassius to win another B1G Tournament title to end his senior year.